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金融市场的宏观建模和微观建模——从金融海啸与市场风险谈起

Macro and microscopic modeling of financial markets——sailing from financial tsunami and market risks

  • 摘要: 金融市场是一个复杂系统,高风险大波动危象频仍,而传统经济金融理论对此无能为力.文章从复杂性科学视角出发,通过市场宏观建模,描绘出当前金融海啸一幅泡沫演化和湮灭的图像.文章进一步论述了一个基于市场微观模型的计算实验金融学框架,认为金融学应当重建唯象学框架,并指出金融物理学在经济学科学革命中的重要性.

     

    Abstract: Financial markets are complex systems, where crises of large fluctuations with high risks take place more than often. However, classical economics is unable to handle these situations. From a complexity science perspective, we present a picture of the evolution and burst of financial bubbles for the current financial tsunami based on the macroscopic modeling of financial markets. We further introduce a framework of computational experimental finance based on the microscopic modeling of markets. We argue that finance should be rebuilt resorting to a phenomenology framework, and econophysics will play a crucial role in this scientific revolution of economics.

     

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